Possible scenario
Maritime Security Worsens
20% Chance
The highest-impact risk is that militants or state-linked forces start treating shadow-fleet transfers as targets or cover for hostile activity. Even a limited incident would raise insurance costs and add an immediate geopolitical premium to crude.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.5%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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