Possible scenario
Trade Pressure Escalates
20% Chance
The White House uses tariffs, rules-of-origin threats, or formal USMCA countermeasures to pressure Mexico for energy concessions. This is less likely than compromise or delay, but Trump has already signaled a willingness to reopen USMCA early and use trade leverage aggressively.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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