Managed Energy Compromise

Washington and Mexico City reach a limited understanding that gives U.S. energy firms better treatment without forcing Mexico to reverse Morena's state-centered energy model. This is the most likely path because Sheinbaum can offer permits, procurement transparency, and dispute-management mechanisms while avoiding a politically costly overhaul of Pemex and CFE privileges.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.