Possible scenario
Extended Stalemate
30% Chance
The talks remain unresolved as the U.S. keeps demanding stronger protections for private energy investment and Mexico resists changes to its electricity and hydrocarbons model. This outcome fits the recent pattern of delayed USMCA negotiations and Sheinbaum's reluctance to signal a quick deal.
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
- Industrials -0.1%
- Utilities -0.1%
Tickers
- TALO-2.2%
- SRE-1.3%
- NFE-0.4%
- -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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