Possible scenario
Sanctions Bite Gradually
42% Chance
The most likely outcome is a contained but effective Treasury action that raises compliance risk for banks, brokers, and payment intermediaries linked to Russia-Iran trade. Correspondent banks in Turkey, the UAE, Armenia, and Kazakhstan tighten screening, but the move does not become a broad market shock.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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