Possible scenario
Network Adapts Quickly
20% Chance
Russia and Iran have had years to build sanctions-resistant channels, so A7-related flows may migrate to new brokers, gold settlement, yuan clearing, or smaller regional banks. Treasury still raises costs, but the network may not be fully severed.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Finance -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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