Possible scenario
Convoys Under Pressure
30% Chance
The U.S. and regional partners expand escorted transits while Iran keeps using drones, fast boats, and denials to raise costs without triggering all-out war. This path keeps the Strait partially functional but preserves a large war-risk premium in oil and shipping.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.5%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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