Possible scenario
Russian Retaliation Escalates
20% Chance
Russia responds with countermeasures designed to raise costs for Europe, including diplomatic expulsions, asset seizures, cyber activity or shipping harassment. This scenario is less likely than contained implementation but would have a clearer risk-off market impact.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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