Possible scenario
Enforcement Gains Traction
35% Chance
The EU follows the headline package with coordinated enforcement against Russia’s oil, shipping, insurance, metals and dual-use procurement networks. The most likely impact is incremental pressure on Russian export logistics rather than an immediate collapse in trade flows.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Copper Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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