Possible scenario
Contained Market Reaction
30% Chance
The sanctions package is large in count but largely extends existing restrictions, with many targets already isolated from Western markets. Compliance costs rise, but oil, metals and financial markets treat the move as a continuation of the established sanctions regime.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Energy +0.2%
- Business Services +0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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