Possible scenario
Diplomatic Off-Ramp
20% Chance
Regional mediators and major oil buyers push Washington and Tehran toward a limited maritime arrangement. The blockade is not removed, but exemptions, notification rules, or escort corridors reduce the immediate risk of tanker attacks.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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