Smooth Nationwide Rollout

The most likely path is that Treasury treats the October 7 announcement as confirmation of a largely completed enrollment drive rather than a new policy shock. Markets see the program as operationally important for asset managers and custodians, but the near-term trading impact is modest because the rollout was heavily telegraphed in late September and early October.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.