Possible scenario
Fiscal Backlash Builds
20% Chance
Congress and the bond market focus on the fiscal cost of universal accounts, especially if automatic enrollment implies larger federal transfers than initially budgeted. The immediate market reaction is still modest because the program was previously enacted and operational, but deficit-sensitive assets could move slightly.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.1%
Tickers
- STT+0.2%
- +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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