Possible scenario
Sustained Border Attrition
45% Chance
Ukraine continues using long-range drones against Rostov, Crimea, and nearby military logistics nodes, but damage remains localized. Russia absorbs the strikes with air-defense redeployments and repairs rather than a major change in war strategy.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
- Energy +0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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