Possible scenario
Russian Retaliation Cycle
20% Chance
The Kremlin responds to raids on Rostov and Crimea with larger missile and drone salvos against Ukrainian infrastructure. The escalation remains within the existing war theater, but it increases near-term geopolitical risk and demand for air-defense systems.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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