Possible scenario
Energy Infrastructure Disruption
25% Chance
The raids increasingly target energy logistics, including oil depots, rail fuel hubs, and facilities supporting Russian forces in southern Ukraine. This remains below a global energy crisis, but it adds a short-term risk premium to crude and Russian energy assets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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