Possible scenario
Wider Plot Emerges
20% Chance
Investigators find evidence that the co-pilot had logistical or ideological support from others. This raises the event from a contained airline incident to a broader security threat, creating a modest risk-off reaction in travel and regional-exposure assets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -3.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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