Possible scenario
Aviation Security Tightens
25% Chance
Israel and the UAE respond with visible but controlled aviation-security measures. The main effect is higher operating friction for carriers serving Tel Aviv rather than a broad geopolitical shock.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -2.4%
- Industrials +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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