Possible scenario
White House Escalates
26% Chance
The White House could avoid a direct shutdown order and instead use procurement, security reviews, and agency guidance to punish Anthropic. This would raise sector concerns that AI vendors serving government clients face political compliance risk.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.2%
- Business Services -0.5%
- Industrials -0.1%
Tickers
- AMZN-0.4%
- MSFT-0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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