Possible scenario
Washington Tightens Controls
18% Chance
U.S. officials treat the DeepSeek-Huawei project as evidence that export controls need to expand beyond finished AI chips. The likely targets include advanced chipmaking tools, HBM access, EDA software, cloud-compute loopholes, and third-country transshipment routes.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.1%
- Industrials -0.3%
Tickers
- NVDA-1.3%
- AMAT-0.8%
- SNPS-0.6%
- CDNS-0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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