Possible scenario
Huawei Stack Works
42% Chance
DeepSeek demonstrates credible progress training or serving an 8 trillion parameter model on Huawei AI chips, validating China’s domestic AI hardware path. The result would not fully displace Nvidia globally, but it would strengthen the view that U.S. export controls are accelerating Chinese substitution.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.9%
Tickers
- NVDA-3.7%
- AMD-1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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