Possible scenario
Republican Firewall Holds
22% Chance
The Republican response overwhelms the Democratic buy, and the race gradually reverts toward Kansas' federal partisan lean. Hamilton remains credible but cannot sustain the polling lead once Marshall and outside GOP groups saturate the airwaves.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Finance +0.2%
- Healthcare -0.1%
- Utilities -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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