Possible scenario
Race Becomes Toss-Up
38% Chance
Senate Majority PAC's $5 million buy validates polling that shows Hamilton overtaking Sen. Roger Marshall, while Senate Leadership Fund's $14 million response keeps Republicans fully engaged. The race remains highly competitive through Election Day, with abortion rights, Laura Kelly-style crossover voters, and national Senate control all driving turnout.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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