Possible scenario
Democratic Breakthrough
30% Chance
The Senate Majority PAC buy accelerates a late Democratic surge rather than merely keeping the race close. Hamilton replicates elements of the 2022 anti-abortion-amendment coalition and Laura Kelly's reelection map, turning Kansas into the cycle's surprise Democratic pickup.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare +0.3%
- Energy -0.3%
- Finance -0.2%
- Utilities +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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