Possible scenario
Inflation Confirms Waller
20% Chance
Incoming price or wage indicators reinforce Waller’s concern that services inflation remains too sticky. Markets move from interpreting his comments as guidance to treating another hike as the base case.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.1%
- Technology -1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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