Possible scenario
Hawkish Pricing Extends
45% Chance
Markets treat Waller’s comments as confirmation that the September rate increase was not a one-off. Treasury yields move higher as investors price a greater chance of additional tightening at the November or December FOMC meetings.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -1.3%
- Technology -1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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