Possible scenario
Investigations Proceed
28% Chance
Even with Trump's public backtrack, congressional Democrats and inspectors general are likely to continue examining who authorized the spending and whether officials violated appropriations law or the Hatch Act. The dispute remains politically salient but does not materially affect broader financial markets.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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