Campaign Fully Halted

The most likely outcome is that the White House and DHS stop the taxpayer-funded ad campaign and characterize the reversal as a compliance decision rather than an admission of wrongdoing. This contains the political damage while allowing the administration to argue that no further public money will be used for overtly pro-Trump messaging.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.