Possible scenario
Program Gets Funded
38% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the Pentagon secures a limited but real mandate for deep-cover economic intelligence against China. The program is framed as defensive support for export controls, sanctions enforcement, and rare-earth supply-chain resilience rather than open-ended sabotage.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -0.2%
- Business Services +0.2%
- Technology -0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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