Possible scenario
Beijing Retaliates
23% Chance
China treats the Pentagon initiative as evidence that Washington is institutionalizing economic warfare. Beijing responds through counterintelligence investigations, selective pressure on U.S. firms, and tighter handling of rare-earth and aerospace-related approvals.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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