Possible scenario
Mediation Reopens
22% Chance
A major casualty claim creates an opening for outside pressure from the African Union, IGAD, the United States, and the European Union. Both Addis Ababa and the TPLF may accept limited talks if they believe a pause helps consolidate positions or avoid further losses.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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