Possible scenario
Federal Gains Resume
25% Chance
The Ethiopian government and allied Eritrean forces could absorb the reported losses and continue the offensive using drones, artillery, and infantry pressure. This path would likely produce more civilian displacement and a higher humanitarian toll, but could also reduce TPLF control of fixed positions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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