Possible scenario
Post-Election Strike Window
20% Chance
The pledge is interpreted as a timing decision rather than a strategic climbdown. Trump avoids pre-midterm action but preserves military options for the post-election period, keeping a residual premium in oil and defense-linked assets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Energy +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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