Possible scenario
Pause Holds Through Midterms
55% Chance
Trump's public commitment becomes the operating policy through Election Day, with the White House prioritizing political risk control over pre-midterm escalation. U.S. forces remain on alert near Iran, but Washington relies on deterrence, warnings, and regional air-defense coordination rather than strikes.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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