Possible scenario
Split-State Outcome
20% Chance
The NRSC's move reflects different realities in the two states rather than a uniform retreat. North Carolina trends toward Democrats because of Cooper's profile, while Georgia remains highly competitive due to polarization and GOP nominee strength.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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