Possible scenario
NRSC Tactical Pause
25% Chance
The target-list change proves more tactical than dispositive, reflecting budget sequencing rather than surrender. Republican-aligned super PACs and state-level donors keep both races competitive while the NRSC concentrates formal resources elsewhere.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
- Healthcare -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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