Possible scenario
Democratic Path Widens
45% Chance
The NRSC decision is interpreted as confirmation that Republicans are triaging expensive, difficult races in North Carolina and Georgia. Roy Cooper maintains a meaningful lead over Michael Whatley, while Jon Ossoff benefits from a GOP resource gap despite facing a strong Republican nominee in Georgia.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare +0.1%
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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