Possible scenario
Contained Technical Incident
23% Chance
A proof-of-concept or limited real-world incident validates Anthropic's concern without becoming a systemic outage. The market response is risk-off for edge-AI hardware and IoT platforms, but not a broad crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.4%
- Telecommunications -0.7%
Tickers
- -2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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