Possible scenario
Rating Pressure Builds
20% Chance
Credit-rating agencies and large bond managers focus on the combination of high net interest, persistent primary deficits, and rising refinancing needs. The more likely path is warnings and negative outlook language, but an actual downgrade remains a material tail risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.9%
- Utilities -1.6%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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