Possible scenario
U.S. Convoy Escalation
27% Chance
The United States expands naval escorts and moves from defensive interception to limited attacks on Iranian launch sites or IRGC fast-boat units. This path is plausible because repeated nightly vessel targeting creates pressure to restore deterrence and protect Gulf exports.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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