Possible scenario
Negotiated Passage Pause
20% Chance
Oman, Qatar, and possibly China broker a limited maritime pause rather than a comprehensive political settlement. This is less likely than continued attrition, but all sides have incentives to prevent insurance markets and Asian crude buyers from freezing Gulf loadings.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -3.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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