Contained Tanker Attrition

Iran continues targeting vessels it labels as involved in U.S.-backed smuggling, but avoids a mass-casualty strike or direct hit on U.S. warships. The most likely near-term path is a grinding maritime standoff that keeps Hormuz risk premiums elevated without forcing an immediate wider war.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.