Possible scenario
Tariffs Persist
30% Chance
The current tariff structure remains in place as governments prioritize leverage over quick compromise. Export pain stays concentrated in Iowa agriculture, Michigan autos and machinery, and Texas-linked metals, chemicals and energy products.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.6%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.6%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
Tickers
- ADM-1.4%
- DE-1.0%
- -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.