Possible scenario
Retaliation Broadens
20% Chance
Trade tensions intensify as China or Canada expand retaliatory lists and Washington responds with additional duties. This becomes a modest cross-asset risk event, but still falls short of a crisis because measures remain tariff-based rather than financial sanctions or embargoes.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -2.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.6%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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