Possible scenario
Negotiated Tariff Relief
35% Chance
Washington, Beijing and Ottawa move toward selective exemptions after export losses become politically costly in Iowa, Michigan and Texas. The most likely relief is narrow and temporary, focused on soybeans, autos, metals and some farm products rather than a full tariff rollback.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.6%
- Industrials +0.6%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
Tickers
- ADM+1.5%
- DE+1.1%
- +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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