Possible scenario
China Narrows Gap
22% Chance
Chinese firms use a combination of distillation, domestic compute efficiency, and indigenous accelerator clusters to compress the remaining performance gap. This would weaken the scarcity premium attached to U.S. frontier models and accelerate pressure for further U.S. restrictions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.5%
Tickers
- GOOG+0.8%
- -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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