Possible scenario
Border Escalation
20% Chance
A breakdown in sequencing could trigger renewed fire if either side tries to improve leverage on the ground. The base case inside this branch is contained escalation, because both Israel and Hezbollah still face high costs from a wider war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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