Possible scenario
Technical Governance Friction
18% Chance
The 200 million gas target triggers a more contentious debate over state growth, bandwidth, MEV concentration and validator hardware requirements. The upgrade is not abandoned, but the market starts pricing higher execution risk and a slower Ethereum scaling path.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.2%
- Finance -0.1%
Tickers
- BTBT-2.6%
- COIN-2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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