Possible scenario
Limited Retaliation
30% Chance
Riyadh concludes that repeated attacks on Abqaiq and Aramco headquarters require a visible military response. The most likely response is targeted strikes against Houthi missile and drone infrastructure, possibly with U.S. intelligence and air-defense support, while both sides try to avoid a full regional war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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