Possible scenario
Supply Shock Reappears
15% Chance
A renewed rise in energy, food or import costs would make Mann's warning appear prescient. The UK would face a more classic stagflation trade-off: weaker real incomes but less room for the BoE to ease policy.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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